High Probability ADVISORS


Minimize Your Taxes!

MICHAEL E. JONES Investment Strategist


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com


July 2019

Investors want to reap returns from their portfolios, so they measure their performance carefully. Taxable investors know that making money and paying taxes goes “hand in hand”. Too often, they look only at pre-tax return while the more important number is after-tax return. What you get to keep after taxes is what pays your bills!

 
Continue Reading


The HPA Factor Series - Quality

COLE SMITH, MICHAEL CICERO AND MICHAEL E. JONES 


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com


May 2019

What constitutes a “high-quality company”? Among academics and investment professionals, the metrics used to identify quality companies differ. Many financial measures have been researched in the pursuit of a factor premium that “aims to capture the excess return of ‘high quality’ companies vs. the market.”

 
Continue Reading


The HPA Factor Series - Size

MICHAEL E. JONES & MICHAEL J. CICERO 


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com


March 2019

Blue Chips, Red Chips… Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap- most investors understand there is a range of different sizes of public companies. Today, the largest companies have stock market capitalizations (the total number of shares outstanding multiplied by the stock price) approaching one trillion dollars, while the smaller stocks in the public realm sport capitalizations less than $50 million. The largest companies are extremely well known, widely held by investors and heavily researched on Wall Street. In contrast, most investors have heard of only a few dozen of the small-cap companies making up the Russell 2000 Index. Long ago, investment strategies began to specialize in stocks of different size. How does the size differentiation matter?

 
Continue Reading


The HPA Factor Series - Value

MICHAEL E. JONES & MICHAEL J. CICERO 


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com


February 2019


High Probability Advisors, LLC was created to take advantage of the investment benefits offered through the use of specific “factors” within the construction of our portfolios. Factors are not new, the structure has been used by practitioners for more than 40 years. The combination of several factors in a multi-factor strategy is a more recent development. Each of the five factors utilized by HPA have been identified and supported through academic and industry research as providing an evidence-based approach to enhance return and/or reduce volatility within an investment portfolio.


Continue Reading


Calm, Relaxed and Focused on the Big Picture

Michael E. Jones, Chief Investment Strategist


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com

 

December 2018

“How are you holding up in these crazy markets?” In one form or another, this question has been asked by countless friends over the years, especially when stock market declines are in the headlines. During declines, fears about future potential problems come front and center. Doom and gloom on the horizon is a sure way to get everyone’s attention!

 
Continue Reading


FACTOR-BASED INVESTING: PLAIN TALK

Michael E. Jones, Chief Investment Strategist


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com

 

AUGUST 2018

Factor-based investing represents an extraordinarily effective and efficient approach to portfolio management. Unfortunately, trying to explain the approach in simple, accurate and understandable terms is a challenge. The subject is loaded with academic jargon and heavy statistical analysis. In this paper, we will take on the challenge and attempt to deliver an understandable explanation of factor-based investing. In subsequent papers, we will describe the individual factors that the academic world has found useful in building investment portfolios.

 
Continue Reading


Probability

Michael E. Jones, Chief Investment Strategist


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com

 

May 2018

Probability is the likelihood that an event will occur, measured by the ratio of favorable cases to the whole number of cases (Wikipedia). For example, consider tossing a coin. There are two possible outcomes, heads or tails. If we toss the coin once, the probability of either heads or tails is ½ or 0.5, usually expressed as 50%. If we toss the coin twice, the probability of getting two heads is 0.5 x 0.5 which equals 0.25 or 25%.


 
Continue Reading


LESS IS MORE

Michael E. Jones, Chief Investment Strategist


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com

 

March 2018

Risk and Return: these two related elements of investment assets are the perennial focus of portfolio management efforts. Through observation and academic research, we know that risk and return are broadly linked. However, the relationship between the two is not simply linear. In fact, historically, stocks that have less risk than the market also beat the index returns over time. The utilization of factor-based investing allows us to manage the pattern of returns and the expression of risk to fit specific portfolio goals. Properly applied, less risk can still bring more return to risk averse investors.


 
Continue Reading


Real World Risk Management

MICHAEL E. JONES, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST
Michael Cicero, Director of Portfolio Research and management


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com

DECEMBER 2017
 

Your investment portfolio contains attributes that impact both your future returns and risks. Using current and historical data, we can develop expectations for portfolio returns. Return expectations can be adjusted by altering the portfolio make-up. Would you like to manage your risks also? Of course! But what does that mean?
      

Continue Reading


Investment Strategy:
Tradition and Progress

Michael E. Jones, Chief Investment Strategist


www.HighProbabilityAdvisors.com

 

November 2017

A long time ago (1979), I arrived in a new job: equity research analyst for a registered investment advisory firm. Armed with a science background and a modest grasp of finance, I jumped into the business of picking stocks to provide attractive performance to investors. Decades later, the timeline of my career depict an interesting story of the evolution of the investment business. Progress and change is found in every industry, including the investment business. I’ve seen plenty of each in the past 38 years.
 
Continue Reading